Live model accountability

FPL projection accuracy by Gameweek

Each scorecard compares a frozen pre-deadline release with settled official FPL points and minutes. No projection is reconstructed after the result.

Long-run model tests Source snapshots

Settled results only

Published scorecards

4 Gameweeks

Gameweek	Likely-player MAE	RMSE	Bias	Within 2 pts	xMins MAE	Engine
GW6	2.43	3.02	+0.78	44.9%	21.8 min	xpts_v1
GW5	2.63	3.28	+0.75	37.7%	24.5 min	xpts_v1
GW4	2.74	3.31	+0.79	33.8%	23.6 min	xpts_v1
GW3	2.51	3.04	+0.96	42.5%	24.1 min	xpts_v1

Primary reporting cohort

The headline row covers players projected for at least 45 minutes. We also publish all-player and predicted-top-25 results on every detail page so a favourable cohort cannot hide broader performance.